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标题: 阿尔乔莫夫斯克战役的战后总结 [打印本页]

作者: 井冈山卫士 时间: 2023-6-4 21:51:24 标题: 阿尔乔莫夫斯克战役的战后总结

https://bigserge.substack.com/p/the-battle-of-bakhmut-postmortem

这位substack上的博主“大谢尔盖”是目前对俄乌战争做出最为系统分析的军事评论家。其正在长篇连载的《机动作战史》可以算是军事历史和军事理论分析的经典之作。

“大谢尔盖”既有大卫·格兰茨（《巨人的碰撞》、《斯摩棱斯克三部曲》、《斯大林格勒三部曲》的作者）的严谨，又有罗伯特·奇蒂诺（《德国国防军三部曲》、《德国将道》、《从巴巴罗萨到沙漠风暴》的作者）的透彻，同时兼备道格拉斯·麦克格里高尔（《破阵枪林》、《火线转型》、《胜败咫尺》的作者）的诙谐。懂英语的网友可以阅读，不懂英语的网友可以当作英语和战争史的双重学习材料。

作者: 井冈山卫士 时间: 2023-6-4 22:23:23

Ukrainian forces greatly needed to stabilize the front, and establish a stable blocking position, and there was really nowhere else to do this except at Bakhmut. Between Lysychansk and Bakhmut there are no sufficiently robust urban areas to anchor the defense, and there was absolutely no question of failing to adequately defend Bakhmut, for a few reasons that we can enumerate:

Bakhmut is in the central position in this sector of front, and its loss would both threaten Siversk with envelopment and allow Russian forces to bypass the well fortified and strongly held defenses at Toretsk.
The Russian strategic objective at Slavyansk-Kramatorsk cannot be successfully defended if the Russian army controls both the heights to the east (in the Bakhmut area) and Izyum.

阿尔乔莫夫斯克（巴赫姆特）是乌军顿巴斯防线的中间点。

作者: 井冈山卫士 时间: 2023-6-4 22:24:06

井冈山卫士发表于 2023-6-4 22:23
Ukrainian forces greatly needed to stabilize the front, and establish a stable blocking position, an ...

如果不拿下该地，俄军将无法有效分割顿巴斯乌军主力。

作者: 井冈山卫士 时间: 2023-6-4 22:25:28

Bakhmut itself, meanwhile, was a defensible urban area with dominating heights in its rear, multiple routes of supply, good linkages to other sectors of front, and a peripheral belt of smaller urban areas protecting its flanks.

This set up a rather obvious operational decision for Ukrainian forces. The choice was, all things considered, to either commit reserves to stabilize the front at Bakhmut (a strong and operational vital defensive anchor) or risk letting Russia bypass and sweep away an entire belt of defenses in places like Siversk and Toretsk. Asked to choose between a reasonably good option and an extremely bad option, there was no great controversy in the deciding.

阿尔乔莫夫斯克背靠丘陵，周围又有大量的卫星城和小镇，非常适合防御。因此乌军在去年夏秋两季选择防御该地是没有问题的。

作者: 井冈山卫士 时间: 2023-6-4 22:26:50

The attack on Soledar ended up being relatively fast and extremely violent, characterized by intense levels of Russian artillery support. The assault began almost immediately after the loss of Bakhmutske on December 27th, and by January 10th Ukraine’s cohesive defense had been shattered. Ukrainian leadership, of course, denied losing the town and wove a story about glorious counterattacks, but even the Institute for the Study of War (a propaganda arm of the US State Department) later admitted that Russia had captured Soledar by January 11th.

The loss of Soledar, in combination with the early January capture of Klischiivka to the south, put Wagner in a position to begin a partial envelopment of Bakhmut.

去年年底，阿尔乔莫夫斯克以北的环形卫星城所列达尔被俄军解放，阿尔乔莫夫斯克的情况开始变得不利于乌军。

作者: 井冈山卫士 时间: 2023-6-4 22:28:06

这是去年年底今年年初的状况

作者: 井冈山卫士 时间: 2023-6-4 22:28:52

今年三四月份的状况

作者: 井冈山卫士 时间: 2023-6-4 22:30:53

It was at this point that the discussion shifted towards a potential Russian encirclement of Bakhmut. To be sure, the Russian wings did expand rapidly around the city, placing it in a firebag, but there was never a concerted effort to take the city into a proper encirclement. The Russian advance subsided on the approach to Ivanivske in the south, and over the vital M03 highway in the north.

A genuine encirclement was probably never in the cards, mainly because of the complication of Chasiv Yar - a strongly held rear area stronghold. To fully encircle Bakhmut, Russian forces would have been forced to choose between two difficult options: either blockade the road from Chasiv Yar to Bakhmut, or flare the envelopment wide enough to take Chasiv Yar into the pocket as well. Either option would have greatly complicated the operation, and so Bakhmut was never genuinely encircled.

What the Russians did succeed in doing, however, was establish dominant position on the flanks which accrued three significant advantages. First, they were able to direct fire on Bakhmut’s remaining supply lines. Secondly, they were able to pummel Bakhmut itself with intense artillery fire from a variety of axes. Third - and perhaps most importantly - they were able to assault the Bakhmut urban center itself from three different directions. This, in the end, greatly hastened the fall of the city. By April, it was clear that the focus had shifted from expanding the envelopment on the flanks to assaulting Bakhmut itself, and it was reported that Russian regular units had taken custody of the flanks so that Wagner could clear the city.

阿尔乔莫夫斯克西南侧的查所付亚尔在一片丘陵上，因此要完全包围阿尔乔莫夫斯克的难度较大，因此俄军采取了三面包围+切段交通线的方式。

作者: 井冈山卫士 时间: 2023-6-4 22:32:42

In fact, what happened was rather anticlimactic. The AFU did bring a hefty grouping of units to play, including several of their best and most veteran formations. These included units from:

The 56th Brigade
The 57th Mechanized Brigade
The 67th Mechanized Brigade
The 92nd Mechanized Brigade
The 3rd Assault Brigade (Azov)
The 80th Air Assault Brigade
The 5th Assault Brigade
This sizeable strike package attacked a handful of mediocre Russian Motor Rifle brigades, achieved a bit of initial success, and culminated with heavy losses. Despite Prigozhin’s assertion that the Russian regulars abandoned their posts and left the Russian wings undefended, we later learned that these forces - including mobilized motor rifle units - doggedly defended their positions and only withdrew under orders from above. These withdrawals (distances of a few hundred meters at most) brought the Russian defensive line to strongly held positions along a series of canals and reservoirs, which the AFU was unable to push through.

乌军最后的绝望反攻用尽了精锐力量，却撞在了俄军的弹性防御面前。在推进了几百米，遭受了严重损失后停滞不前。

作者: 远航一号 时间: 2023-6-4 23:25:23

Despite Prigozhin’s assertion that the Russian regulars abandoned their posts and left the Russian wings undefended, we later learned that these forces - including mobilized motor rifle units - doggedly defended their positions and only withdrew under orders from above.

这段话很重要，说明普里高任对俄军其他部队的指责没有根据。

国内亲帝“左派”与自由派一样，抓住普利高任只言片语还在妄想“1917”（实际是1991再演）呢？

作者: 远航一号 时间: 2023-6-4 23:37:34

Which army was really destroyed in this “strategically insignificant” city? Which army was being profligately wasteful of its manpower? And most importantly - why did this middling city become the site of the largest battle of the century?

作者提出了重要且关键的问题：在这场21世纪以来最大战役中，到底是乌军还是俄军遭到了毁灭性打击？

作者: 远航一号 时间: 2023-6-4 23:52:37

Battle of Bakhmut was fought from August 1, 2022 to May 20, 2023 - a total of 293 days.

巴赫穆特（阿尔乔莫夫斯克）之战从2022年8月1日开始至2023年5月20日俄军完全解放阿尔乔莫夫斯克为止，共293天。

作者: 远航一号 时间: 2023-6-5 00:11:52

井冈山卫士发表于 2023-6-4 22:32
In fact, what happened was rather anticlimactic. The AFU did bring a hefty grouping of units to play ...

In fact, what happened was rather anticlimactic

Anticlimactic 这个词用得好

乌军的反攻“虎头蛇尾”，高调宣传了几个月，几天内就失去势头

作者: 远航一号 时间: 2023-6-5 00:16:07

本帖最后由远航一号于 2023-6-5 00:19 编辑

井冈山卫士发表于 2023-6-4 22:32
In fact, what happened was rather anticlimactic. The AFU did bring a hefty grouping of units to play ...

乌军出动了七个精锐旅，面对俄军一两个普通的摩托化步兵旅的防御

与普里高任信口开河污蔑（也许是故意编造）俄军溃退相反，俄军顽强防御并重创乌军精锐后，按照命令有计划地后撤到几百米后面的预设阵地。

作者: 远航一号 时间: 2023-6-5 00:18:21

俄军不受网上舆论干扰有计划攻防的能力与北约、乌克兰纳粹（也许还有未来的中资）以公关战争为战争最高目标的作战方式形成鲜明对比。

作者: 马儿在驰骋 时间: 2023-6-5 00:27:28

远航一号发表于 2023-6-4 23:25
这段话很重要，说明普里高任对俄军其他部队的指责没有根据。

国内亲帝“左派”与自由派一样，抓住普利高 ...

这个“1917”，普里戈津估计是在暗指二月革命，结果一群反俄当局反到魔怔的亲帝伪左像吃了春药一样以为会是再来一次十月革命。

作者: 远航一号 时间: 2023-6-5 00:39:09

This is an absolutely enormous commitment (37 brigades, 2 regiments, and 18 separate battalions (plus irregular formations like the Georgian Legion) which indicates obviously severe losses

在九个月的战斗中，乌军累计投入37个旅、两个团、18个独立营以及格鲁吉亚兵团等若干雇佣兵部队，折合40个旅以上

作者: 远航一号 时间: 2023-6-5 00:42:58

远航一号发表于 2023-6-5 00:39
在九个月的战斗中，乌军累计投入37个旅、两个团、18个独立营以及格鲁吉亚兵团等若干雇佣兵部队，折合40个 ...

Ukraine had an extremely high burn rate which forced it to commit nearly a third of its total ORBAT

以上兵力占乌军全部战斗序列的三分之一

作者: 远航一号 时间: 2023-6-5 00:45:51

this burn included a large number of Ukraine’s premier and veteran forces, including fully a dozen assault, airborne, and armored brigades.

在巴赫穆特，乌军损失了一大批精锐或富有战斗经验的部队，包括十几个突击旅、空降旅和装甲旅

作者: 远航一号 时间: 2023-6-5 00:52:17

本帖最后由远航一号于 2023-6-5 00:54 编辑

The number that I have been working with is approximately 17,000 total Wagner KIA in the Bakhmut operation (with a min-max range of 14,000 and 20,000, respectively).

作者认为，战役期间，瓦格纳阵亡总数约为17000人，俄军正规军阵亡3000-5000人。

作者: 远航一号 时间: 2023-6-5 01:01:15

The enormous inventory of AFU units that were churned through Bakhmut included something on the order of 160,000 total personnel. Taking loss rates of between 25 and 30% (roughly on par with Wagner’s burn rate), it’s clear that Ukraine’s losses were extreme. I believe total irretrievable losses for Ukraine in Bakhmut were approximately 45,000, with some +/- 7,000 margin of error.

战役期间，乌军累计投入16万，至少阵亡45000人。

作者: 远航一号 时间: 2023-6-5 01:03:29

Russia churned through its single most disposable military asset, leaving its regular ORBAT not only completely intact, but actually larger than it was last year.

俄军正规战斗序列保持完整，且不断扩大

作者: 远航一号 时间: 2023-6-5 01:05:06

Meanwhile, Ukraine was left with virtually no indigenous offensive power - the only way it can conduct offensive operations is with a mechanized package built from scratch by NATO

乌克兰本土的战略预备队消耗殆尽

作者: 远航一号 时间: 2023-6-5 01:09:57

Bakhmut was after all a very good place to fight a static defense. If the AFU could not hold it, or even produce a favorable loss exchange, can a strategy of holding static fortified belts really be deemed viable?

巴赫穆特失守，将动摇乌军今后依托坚固堡垒地带实施静态防御的决心

作者: 井冈山卫士 时间: 2023-6-5 04:29:45

远航一号发表于 2023-6-5 01:09
巴赫穆特失守，将动摇乌军今后依托坚固堡垒地带实施静态防御的决心

阿尔乔莫夫斯克失守不仅仅意味着一个重要交通枢纽和中心阵地丢失，而且意味着就算是集中精锐主力打静态防御这种看起来明显占便宜的仗，基辅也必然要失败。

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