美国统治集团激烈辩论乌克兰战争前景及美国对策

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A foreign policy analyst who has advised the US Defense Department noted that Putin can call up 1.7 million reserves if he has to. “It may be fun to sink Russian ships in the Black Sea or to destroy targets inside Russia,” he said, “But it doesn’t relieve pressure on Ukraine. It’s like the American Civil War. The South fought more effectively, but the North had an overwhelming advantage in manpower and munitions. By 1865, the South didn’t have enough soldiers to defend Richmond.” He proposed an international army of volunteers to fight for Ukraine.

普京可以征召170万预备役。在黑海击沉几艘俄罗斯军舰不解决问题。在美国内战中，南军打得很好，但北方在人力物力方面有压倒优势。到了1865年，南方再也没有足够的人来保卫里士满了。
该“专家”建议组织国际志愿军来帮助乌克兰。

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A former senior foreign policy official proposed that the United States threaten China with sanctions to limit its support for Russia. Although sanctions on Russia haven’t worked, China is a different case, he argued, because it is more integrated than Russia into the world economic system.

一名原高级外交官员主张对中国威胁使用制裁，来制止其对俄罗斯的帮助。该官员承认，对俄罗斯的制裁没有起作用，但中国的情形不同，因为中国与世界经济体系的结合程度远远超过俄罗斯。

编注：这名外交官员的主张疯狂而愚蠢，但其对中、俄区别的观察有些意思

井冈山卫士

远航一号 发表于 2023-3-21 00:41
普京可以征召170万预备役。在黑海击沉几艘俄罗斯军舰不解决问题。在美国内战中，南军打得很好，但北方在人 ...

上一期《美国保守派》的一篇文章也用美国内战来形容本次战争。但显然把乌军比作邦联军是高抬了前者。

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There is a lot of anti-Russian sentiment in China, he added, and the Chinese people won’t like the idea of accepting hardship to help Russia. Ukraine and China, he added, “have a robust partnership going back decades.”

该官员称，在中国内部，有很多反俄情绪。中国“人民”不会为了帮助俄罗斯而过苦日子。

编注：在中国资产阶级和自由派小资产阶级中，确实有相当的反俄情绪。

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I am at liberty to report what I told the group. The Ukraine war has set in motion a global realignment, including the China-Iran-Saudi agreement. Looking at America’s blunders in Ukraine, the Saudis have concluded that America won’t put boots on the ground in the Middle East and are looking for other friends.

《亚洲时报》文章作者认为，全球力量正在重组。沙特阿拉伯看到美国在乌克兰搞砸了，意识到美国无法再把士兵派到中东了，于是开始寻找新朋友。

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Turkey has flourished as a trade intermediary between China and Russia, and has patched up relations with the Gulf States as well as Israel. India, supposedly an ally against China, has become Russia’s biggest customer for oil and has vastly expanded its trade with China, which now provides 30% of its non-oil imports.

土耳其从充当中俄之间贸易中介而获利。印度，本来是美国反对中国的盟友，现在成了俄罗斯石油的最大买家。

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The United States is losing influence catastrophically by underestimating Russia. It doesn’t have the industrial capacity to provide artillery ammunition to Ukraine. The best policy is an immediate ceasefire, I argued.

文章作者认为，美国由于低估了俄罗斯，正在灾难性地失去其国际影响力。美国没有向乌克兰大量提供炮弹的工业能力。目前最好的办法，是立即实现停火。

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马儿在驰骋 发表于 2023-3-21 00:36
乌克兰版春季觉醒行动？

对，从乌军接近覆灭来说，1945年春季觉醒更贴切
但乌军此次还不知道有没有的“春季攻势”拖延迟疑和犹豫不决的表现更像“堡垒”

井冈山卫士

远航一号 发表于 2023-3-21 00:59
对，从乌军接近覆灭来说，1945年春季觉醒更贴切
但乌军此次还不知道有没有的“春季攻势”拖延迟疑和犹豫不 ...

如果克里米亚或者梅利托波尔是反攻目标，那确实是春醒行动。

井冈山卫士

远航一号 发表于 2023-3-21 00:47
一名原高级外交官员主张对中国威胁使用制裁，来制止其对俄罗斯的帮助。该官员承认，对俄罗斯的制裁没有起 ...

这位官员的谈话很有意思。感觉像是纽兰一类的人物。无能，但是也知道中国资产阶级更无能。