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楼主: 王导

乌克兰筹备的春季攻势计划及北约内部军事简报 [复制链接]

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发表于 2023-4-12 13:34:18 |显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 王导 于 2023-4-12 17:41 编辑
井冈山卫士 发表于 2023-4-12 05:41
美军历史上出过类似的事。1968年就有人主动泄露了韦斯特摩兰请求增兵26万,一路从越南打进中国的记忆。 ...

此人还瞒着约翰逊,计划一旦在越南溪山战役失利后使用战术核武器扭转局势,结果是被白宫的一些政客阻止了。

现在白宫和五角大楼的情况反过来了。背后也反映了统治集团不同成分认知水平的变化。

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发表于 2023-4-12 21:02:42 |显示全部楼层
王导 发表于 2023-4-12 13:34
此人还瞒着约翰逊,计划一旦在越南溪山战役失利后使用战术核武器扭转局势,结果是被白宫的一些政客阻止了 ...

是的。五角大楼好歹在最近30年打过几场殖民战争,国务院(外交部)现在就是个戏班子。

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发表于 2023-4-12 21:37:50 |显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 王导 于 2023-4-12 21:53 编辑

西摩·赫什声称,美国军方据称正在准备起草协议,以结束乌克兰冲突。

据他称,美方正在考虑在乌克兰的利益下结束冲突的可能性,因此正在为此做准备。将在“失败的情况下”提供给俄罗斯。

https://twitter.com/northerly_/status/1646124067844689921
https://twitter.com/RT_India_news/status/1646122500995047425

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发表于 2023-4-14 02:52:11 |显示全部楼层
https://substack.com/inbox/post/112715127

链接中有这样一段俄罗斯军官的话很有意思。现代正规战争的精确打击让部队大规模集中出现困难,仅仅是杀伤敌方前线兵力已经不够,需要将敌方的精确打击力量削弱到相当的程度,才能为机动作战创造条件。

Peculiarities of decentralization of management and residence of personals ( 1/2 )

I have long wanted to clarify this point, because communicating with civilians, I see a misunderstanding regarding the arrangement of life, management and deployment of personnel in the combat zone.

Someone has an idea (no jokes), following the example of American militants, that there is a certain base in which cars drive back and forth, the paratroopers run at a marching pace, someone does push-ups against the background, all sweaty, some black commander walks and sends a group of guys on a combat mission - pushes a motivational speech. After that, the guys shouting "Hurrah!" get into the Urals and drive off into the sunset.

Someone has a more modest idea: there is a certain barracks where everyone sits, trains at a nearby training ground and goes on a combat mission.

In reality, everything looks something like this:

A brigade or division has about a hundred "locations" in which the minimum number of people lives - up to 30-40 in the "largest" and from 2 to 20 in standard ones.

Standard places of residence are basements, private houses, apartments, dugouts on 2-3 lines of defense, basements on 1 line.

Almost no one, except for the commanders, knows each other.

Privates (except for those who have survived since 2014) are not familiar with the remaining 99% of the unit's personnel.

Products are delivered to the main locations. The food is monotonous, but there are no problems with it.

It is not difficult to guess that everyone is scattered because of the threat of shelling by Khimari (HIMARs). If you bring together even 200 people, they will definitely fly by them.

Until now, the morons officers who, at a distance of 5-10 km from the front line, put next to several Urals with people and equipment, columns, have not been translated. Because it's so "convenient" for them and they don't understand how it can be otherwise - to arrange transport with personals and equipment at least 20-40 meters away. Until now, there are morons officers who, for the sake of convenience, are trying to crowd a company or an entire battalion in one place. You can't do that. But in the completely discredited "MOD academies" - they did not teach modern warfare. Here they can't.

What is the complexity of the location of personals ?

The rear officers (and there are no others) are used to the fact that there is a barracks where everyone sleeps in piles. They gave him this barracks - that's where it's supposed to live. These guys have not seen any other options in their lives.

Here you have a bunch of people, let's say 300 people. You arrived - where to put them? Who knows.

Those who are smarter turn to the officers of the LDNR, that is, to the local warriors, for help. Donbass is extremely saturated with bomb shelters and dual-use buildings - therefore, the best and easiest way to distribute personals is to negotiate with the owners of these premises (the majority go forward). Communicate with local residents in villages and towns - they can suggest broken-down empty buildings with good basements. Further, it is necessary to independently conduct electricity or buy a generator, gasoline and equip the economy in every possible way.

All transport must be kept under sheds, carefully camouflaged, all equipment must stand far from each other - it is wasteful to work on single targets - the enemy fires only clusters.

After arriving at the location, especially stupid rear chiefs have an idea in their heads that mobile phones, the Internet, etc. are to blame for everything - no.

Individual local residents (sympathizers with uprops) instantly report (for money) to the SBU all the latest news - including who drove in, who arrived in what quantity and where they are.

A local resident will easily come up, smoke with gullible soldiers who want to look in the best light - find out who has arrived, provide moral support and then go to write a report to the SBU. The same is done by individual servicemen who were greatly offended, or mobs, who were originally on the side of the dill.

The most important thing to understand is that the enemy knows everything. Where are all the command posts, equipment, where and when does it travel. And it's not about phones.

Therefore, the best way to protect personnel and equipment is decentralization.

Yes, management is very difficult, there is an increased need for means of communication, but it would be better for everyone to be troublesome and uncomfortable than everyone to be dead.

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发表于 2023-4-14 04:02:10 |显示全部楼层
井冈山卫士 发表于 2023-4-14 02:52
https://substack.com/inbox/post/112715127

链接中有这样一段俄罗斯军官的话很有意思。现代正规战争的精 ...

怎么样,有什么感想?

是不是这种“精确打击力度”为俄乌双方的大规模集结都造成某种困难?

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发表于 2023-4-15 21:14:30 |显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 井冈山卫士 于 2023-4-15 21:23 编辑
远航一号 发表于 2023-4-14 04:02
怎么样,有什么感想?

是不是这种“精确打击力度”为俄乌双方的大规模集结都造成某种困难? ...

有这种可能性。最近一个时期俄罗斯部队编制的特点是继续走向小型化,即把原来的合成营战斗群进一步拆分为合成连突击分队。

精确制导武器的发展有可能让合成营下辖的步兵和坦克连规模的活动都显得过于臃肿,以至于很容易遭受严重损失,从而使整个合成营战斗群丧失突击能力。面对这种局面,有两个可能的解决方案。

一个是重归师-团机构,增加结构冗余,是部队在可以承受损失之后继续行动,以适应机动作战的快节奏。

另一个是继续拆分,在加强连的规模上实现诸兵种合成,这样一方面难以被敌人捕捉到,另一方面在遭遇损失后也可以迅速由预备队填补。这种方法更适应高强度消耗战。

现在出现了一个非常有意思的局面,就是在武器的精度和杀伤力都明显提升的情况下,未来战争的双方都想要突破消耗战,重新实现决定性的运动战。否则,除非像俄罗斯这样拥有明显兵力兵器优势和世界人民的支持,一般的资产阶级政府显然无法承受这种消耗。这个局面特别像1918年到1939年各主要大国探索未来机动作战思路的局面。

上次,即第二次世界大战解决方案的关键点1)无线电解决了机动作战中的指挥-控制-通信问题;2)摩托化炮兵和空军解决了突破时的火力集中问题;3)坦克解决了突破时的基础防护问题。因此,大规模部队的集中、机动、作战和保障的问题都被解决了,战役的主要形态从静态消耗战转变为了机动歼灭战。

近二十年间精确制导武器的普及和低成本化让上述三个方面都出现了问题,以至于不得不进一步分散来避免有生力量损失。同时,下一步转入机动作战的门槛,即把对方的精确制导武器消灭到何种程度,有可能会上升。哪怕是区域拒止/反介入,也存在一个可能越来越不利的效费比。

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发表于 2023-4-15 22:25:40 |显示全部楼层
井冈山卫士 发表于 2023-4-15 21:14
有这种可能性。最近一个时期俄罗斯部队编制的特点是继续走向小型化,即把原来的合成营战斗群进一步拆分为 ...

最后一句没看懂

精确制导武器杀伤力更强,不会让区域拒止更容易吗?

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发表于 2023-4-15 22:32:48 |显示全部楼层
远航一号 发表于 2023-4-15 22:25
最后一句没看懂

精确制导武器杀伤力更强,不会让区域拒止更容易吗?

我的理解是,区域拒止是全称否定判断,只要有漏网之鱼击中重要设施和集结地就失败了。反区域拒止是特称肯定判断,只要有漏网之鱼击中关键点就成功了。反区域拒止并不意味着全面介入。

精确制导武器的精度和威力的提高会增加区域拒止的成本。即,能够造成较大杀伤需要的漏网之鱼数量在减少。

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