阿尔乔莫夫斯克战役的战后总结

井冈山卫士

https://bigserge.substack.com/p/the-battle-of-bakhmut-postmortem

这位substack上的博主“大谢尔盖”是目前对俄乌战争做出最为系统分析的军事评论家。其正在长篇连载的《机动作战史》可以算是军事历史和军事理论分析的经典之作。

“大谢尔盖”既有大卫·格兰茨（《巨人的碰撞》、《斯摩棱斯克三部曲》、《斯大林格勒三部曲》的作者）的严谨，又有罗伯特·奇蒂诺（《德国国防军三部曲》、《德国将道》、《从巴巴罗萨到沙漠风暴》的作者）的透彻，同时兼备道格拉斯·麦克格里高尔（《破阵枪林》、《火线转型》、《胜败咫尺》的作者）的诙谐。懂英语的网友可以阅读，不懂英语的网友可以当作英语和战争史的双重学习材料。

井冈山卫士

Ukrainian forces greatly needed to stabilize the front, and establish a stable blocking position, and there was really nowhere else to do this except at Bakhmut. Between Lysychansk and Bakhmut there are no sufficiently robust urban areas to anchor the defense, and there was absolutely no question of failing to adequately defend Bakhmut, for a few reasons that we can enumerate:

Bakhmut is in the central position in this sector of front, and its loss would both threaten Siversk with envelopment and allow Russian forces to bypass the well fortified and strongly held defenses at Toretsk.
The Russian strategic objective at Slavyansk-Kramatorsk cannot be successfully defended if the Russian army controls both the heights to the east (in the Bakhmut area) and Izyum.

阿尔乔莫夫斯克（巴赫姆特）是乌军顿巴斯防线的中间点。

井冈山卫士

井冈山卫士 发表于 2023-6-4 22:23
Ukrainian forces greatly needed to stabilize the front, and establish a stable blocking position, an ...

如果不拿下该地，俄军将无法有效分割顿巴斯乌军主力。

井冈山卫士

Bakhmut itself, meanwhile, was a defensible urban area with dominating heights in its rear, multiple routes of supply, good linkages to other sectors of front, and a peripheral belt of smaller urban areas protecting its flanks.

This set up a rather obvious operational decision for Ukrainian forces. The choice was, all things considered, to either commit reserves to stabilize the front at Bakhmut (a strong and operational vital defensive anchor) or risk letting Russia bypass and sweep away an entire belt of defenses in places like Siversk and Toretsk. Asked to choose between a reasonably good option and an extremely bad option, there was no great controversy in the deciding.

阿尔乔莫夫斯克背靠丘陵，周围又有大量的卫星城和小镇，非常适合防御。因此乌军在去年夏秋两季选择防御该地是没有问题的。

井冈山卫士

The attack on Soledar ended up being relatively fast and extremely violent, characterized by intense levels of Russian artillery support. The assault began almost immediately after the loss of Bakhmutske on December 27th, and by January 10th Ukraine’s cohesive defense had been shattered. Ukrainian leadership, of course, denied losing the town and wove a story about glorious counterattacks, but even the Institute for the Study of War (a propaganda arm of the US State Department) later admitted that Russia had captured Soledar by January 11th.

The loss of Soledar, in combination with the early January capture of Klischiivka to the south, put Wagner in a position to begin a partial envelopment of Bakhmut.

去年年底，阿尔乔莫夫斯克以北的环形卫星城所列达尔被俄军解放，阿尔乔莫夫斯克的情况开始变得不利于乌军。

井冈山卫士

这是去年年底今年年初的状况

井冈山卫士

今年三四月份的状况

井冈山卫士

It was at this point that the discussion shifted towards a potential Russian encirclement of Bakhmut. To be sure, the Russian wings did expand rapidly around the city, placing it in a firebag, but there was never a concerted effort to take the city into a proper encirclement. The Russian advance subsided on the approach to Ivanivske in the south, and over the vital M03 highway in the north.

A genuine encirclement was probably never in the cards, mainly because of the complication of Chasiv Yar - a strongly held rear area stronghold. To fully encircle Bakhmut, Russian forces would have been forced to choose between two difficult options: either blockade the road from Chasiv Yar to Bakhmut, or flare the envelopment wide enough to take Chasiv Yar into the pocket as well. Either option would have greatly complicated the operation, and so Bakhmut was never genuinely encircled.

What the Russians did succeed in doing, however, was establish dominant position on the flanks which accrued three significant advantages. First, they were able to direct fire on Bakhmut’s remaining supply lines. Secondly, they were able to pummel Bakhmut itself with intense artillery fire from a variety of axes. Third - and perhaps most importantly - they were able to assault the Bakhmut urban center itself from three different directions. This, in the end, greatly hastened the fall of the city. By April, it was clear that the focus had shifted from expanding the envelopment on the flanks to assaulting Bakhmut itself, and it was reported that Russian regular units had taken custody of the flanks so that Wagner could clear the city.

阿尔乔莫夫斯克西南侧的查所付亚尔在一片丘陵上，因此要完全包围阿尔乔莫夫斯克的难度较大，因此俄军采取了三面包围+切段交通线的方式。

井冈山卫士

In fact, what happened was rather anticlimactic. The AFU did bring a hefty grouping of units to play, including several of their best and most veteran formations. These included units from:

The 56th Brigade
The 57th Mechanized Brigade
The 67th Mechanized Brigade
The 92nd Mechanized Brigade
The 3rd Assault Brigade (Azov)
The 80th Air Assault Brigade
The 5th Assault Brigade
This sizeable strike package attacked a handful of mediocre Russian Motor Rifle brigades, achieved a bit of initial success, and culminated with heavy losses. Despite Prigozhin’s assertion that the Russian regulars abandoned their posts and left the Russian wings undefended, we later learned that these forces - including mobilized motor rifle units - doggedly defended their positions and only withdrew under orders from above. These withdrawals (distances of a few hundred meters at most) brought the Russian defensive line to strongly held positions along a series of canals and reservoirs, which the AFU was unable to push through.

乌军最后的绝望反攻用尽了精锐力量，却撞在了俄军的弹性防御面前。在推进了几百米，遭受了严重损失后停滞不前。

远航一号

Despite Prigozhin’s assertion that the Russian regulars abandoned their posts and left the Russian wings undefended, we later learned that these forces - including mobilized motor rifle units - doggedly defended their positions and only withdrew under orders from above.

这段话很重要，说明普里高任对俄军其他部队的指责没有根据。

国内亲帝“左派”与自由派一样，抓住普利高任只言片语还在妄想“1917”（实际是1991再演）呢？