6月8日，乌军大规模进攻失败、损失大量兵力和装备

远航一号

https://twitter.com/MikaelValterss1/status/1666648209081475073


NEWS UPDATE & ANALYSIS UKRAINIAN COUNTEROFFENSIVE ZAPORIZHIA LATE NIGHT JUNE 8It seems that the much awaited ukrainian counteroffensive has started. Since yesterday a number of waves with ukrainian units has attacked the russian positions south and southwest of Orikhiv.

The fighting has been very hard but the ukrainian forces has made only minor gains and according to my russian sources there seems to have been heavy casualities on both sides, but especially on the ukrainian side. The russian MoD will probably claim several thousand killed ukrainians and 50-100 destroyed ukrainian combat vehicles later today.

After several unsuccessfull assaults yesterday with limited artillery support the UkrAF spent a couple of hours long massive artillery barrage on the russian forward positions before resuming attacks during the night but to no avail. For the time being no attacks are ongoing, but large ukrainian formations are in position for resumed attacks. The attacks will probably resume in a couple of hours.

I believe the ukrainian side is disappointed with the lack of progress. They must break through not only the first russian defenceline but a large number of defencelines behind the first one. To achieve success the ukrainian side cannot spend many days with huge losses to break through each defenceline. The coming three or four days might be some of the most important days in 2023 when it comes to the war.

If UkrAF doesn't succeed in breaking through the russian defences and suffer massive casualities during the attempts the summer offensive will be shortlived and a failure. If on the other side ukrainian forces do break through they have to take on the next defenceline and it's starting over again. The only way Ukraine can achieve a significant success is if the russian forces collapse under pressure from the attacks and panic spreads. But that doesn't seem likely at the moment.Ukraine must get a significant success during the offensive to make it worth the costs. A failure will change  the perception of the RuAF both in the West but also in the rest of the world. The likelihood of a ukrainian military victory will disappear. Pressure both within the western countries,  but also from the west towards Ukraine, will increase on negotiations to solve the conflict. On the other hand a victoriousl Russia might want to go for a military victory instead of negotiations and use a ukrainian defeat for an major offensive.For the time going I'm inclined to believe that the most likely outcome is a ukrainian defeat. They have no surprise or numerical superiotity and faces an enemy with superiority in artillery and air power who awaits them in well prepared fortifications. It looks a lot like the battle of Kursk in 1943. When the Third Reich throw all their reserves in an offensive against well prepared Soviet defences and used up all of their carefully gathered reserves during a couple of weeks, without any major success.

井冈山卫士

马儿在驰骋 发表于 2023-6-9 21:00
神风敢死队无人机。。

原文是这么写的。其实就是自爆无人机。

马儿在驰骋

井冈山卫士 发表于 2023-6-9 20:54
Orekhov方向，Rabotino以北，AFU第47旅和第65旅，要求撤离。他们从阵地逃离。

俄罗斯第 22 近卫特种旅和第 ...

神风敢死队无人机。。

井冈山卫士

乌克兰在 OP 的消息来源说，由于与 Zelensky 的分歧，Zaluzhny 不负责反攻行动，指挥部任命了负责亚速海战的人员：Komarenko、Syrsky、Tarnavsky。总司令报告情况，但反攻的所有行动控制权都移交给地面部队的指挥官。

https://twitter.com/KELMAND1/status/1667072787847213063

井冈山卫士

井冈山卫士 发表于 2023-6-9 20:55
基本军事理论，如下所示：

左边是许多人认为的防御线的样子：一条完整的防线由防御的部队蹲在里面控制。

因此，俄军撤退到预备阵地。但是，在那之后，大炮和航空兵对付了试图在前沿阵地上站稳脚跟的敌人。结果，APU损失惨重地撤退了。

[backcolor=rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.02)]到了早上 乌克兰65旅的部队恢复了对 Rabotino 的攻击。与此同时，一个47旅的装备Leopard 2A4坦克和 Bradley 步兵战车的装甲纵队开始攻击 Rabotino和Verbov之间的据点。
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https://twitter.com/KELMAND1

井冈山卫士

基本军事理论，如下所示：

左边是许多人认为的防御线的样子：一条完整的防线由防御的部队蹲在里面控制。

右侧是实际防线（更准确地说是接触线）。这两条线之间的空间被称为“灰色地带、控制区、无人区”等术语。这是部队在战斗中相遇的空间。

接触线上有先锋部队和他们身后的活跃预备队。

在进攻上，实际上并不是进攻前锋的一个点，而是他们觉得后备队无法应对的一个点。也可以攻击这样一个点，将预备队分流过来，等预备队分心后再进攻另一个点。

战斗行动围绕着摧毁预备役部队，要么通过直接交战（投入预备队直到他们投入），要么转移他们并突围到别处。

但这不是乌克兰部队正在做的事情

乌克兰正在向多个方向发起攻击（看似随机）并被击退。也就是说，他们并没有将俄罗斯的后备力量吸引到一个特定的点（通过这个点会使另一个点变得脆弱），而只是在平推…就像…红警里A过去一样…

https://twitter.com/KELMAND1/status/1667137140390604800

井冈山卫士

Orekhov方向，Rabotino以北，AFU第47旅和第65旅，要求撤离。他们从阵地逃离。

俄罗斯第 22 近卫特种旅和第 291 近卫摩托化步枪团正在用大炮、迫击炮和神风敢死队无人机追杀AFU。

https://twitter.com/KELMAND1/status/1667144198812753923

井冈山卫士

被摧毁的豹2A2坦克和M2布拉德利步兵战车的一部分。

显然是在行军队列中受到打击。M2可能来自第47机械化步兵旅，豹2A2坦克可能来自于临时配属到该旅的一个装甲连。

井冈山卫士

从被摧毁的纳粹装备看来，纳粹在扎波罗热和相邻的南顿涅茨克方向（东西向战线）上用的主要是西方制装备，而在其他方向上用的是苏制装备。但是显然西方制装备水平有限。

井冈山卫士

俄罗斯卫星通讯社莫斯科6月9日电 俄罗斯国防部表示，过去24小时，俄军在特别军事行动期间消灭乌军1170人。

俄罗斯国防部发布通报说：“过去24小时，在顿涅茨克方向，俄军在战斗行动中消灭乌军近410人，摧毁乌军坦克4辆、步战车8辆、汽车7辆、美制M777榴弹炮1门、’穆斯塔河-B'自行榴弹炮1门“。俄罗斯国防部在通报中指出，在顿涅茨克方向，俄军昨天击退6次进攻，敌人未能突破防线。

俄国防部指出，“在库皮扬斯克方向，过去24小时，敌军损失30余人，摧毁对方3辆汽车、1门‘冰雹’火箭炮、2门D-30榴弹炮。”

俄国防部在通报中说：“过去24小时，在红利曼方向，乌军折损50余人，1辆步战车、2辆汽车、2门‘康乃馨’自行火炮、1门D-20榴弹炮被摧毁。”

俄国防部指出，过去24小时，乌军一直在南顿涅茨克和扎波罗热方向发动进攻，俄军击退敌军4次进攻。

俄罗斯国防部在通报中说：“乌军在上述（南顿涅茨克以及扎波罗热）方向损失近680人，35辆坦克、11辆步战车、19辆装甲车、6辆汽车（包括3辆‘HMMWV’），1门法制‘凯撒’自行榴弹炮被摧毁“。