乌军在乌热弥耶夫斯卡突出部附近占领三个小村庄

远航一号

关于乌军主攻的两个方向，见：


http://redchinacn.org/forum.php?mod=viewthread&tid=27380


澄清一下乌友讲的“解放三个小村庄”到底是怎么回事儿。在Vremyevsky突出部涅斯库奇诺耶吃了几次亏以后乌克兰方面改变了战术，第 68 旅的 AFU 部队在 Vremyevsky 侧翼占领了Blagodatnoye这个小村庄，AFU士兵发布了一段视频，视频中乌克兰国旗被放置在村庄最南端的一座破旧建筑中。


https://twitter.com/KELMAND1/status/1668077898014822401

井冈山卫士

这两天的“三村战役”发生在地图右上（东北）方向的南顿涅茨克地区。并非乌军主攻方向，也并非战役重点。就算乌军在此地取得突破，也无法向纵深发展。

乌军唯一在军事上“合理”的进攻方向是上周其遭遇惨败的托克马克轴线，在地图中央。这里发生的事情将具有决定意义。

井冈山卫士

据土耳其情报称，俄罗斯军队已经完全控制了马卡罗夫卡地区。俄罗斯坦克和 ATGM 可以轻松地勘察该地区并使用热像仪从山上向南开火，这一事实使武装部队的行动变得极其困难。

Zaporizhzhya 地区北部的三个村庄没有适当的防御工事，连续两天遭到炮火和滑翔炸弹以及来自武装直升机的 ATGM 的炮击。

土耳其方面情报对扎波罗热局势的概述。

扎波罗热地区战火平息，乌克兰军队损失惨重，停止了全面攻势。由于某些单位的意外高损失，单位中出现动荡，并且不愿继续进攻。乌克兰指挥部继续为新的、更大规模的攻击做准备。

俄罗斯军队还使用多管火箭炮和大炮进行打击，还使用飞机对付乌克兰阵地。

在过去八天里，乌克兰武装部队的伤亡人数接近 12,000 人，而俄罗斯联邦武装部队的伤亡人数要少很多倍。造成人数巨大差异的主要原因是，大部分伤亡是由于乌克兰机械化部队试图不穿过战壕和居民区，而是在猛烈火力下穿过雷区和开阔地带。

https://twitter.com/KELMAND1/status/1668498457936510977

井冈山卫士

猹爱吃瓜 发表于 2023-6-13 20:50
也就是说这三个除了马卡罗夫，其余两个村庄得失意义不大，而放大来看也是无伤大雅对吗？ ...

NEWS UPDATE VREMIVKA SALIENT NOON JUNE 13
In general both sides seem to say the same thing about the situation. The main difference is about who control Makarivka. The most detailed report is from Russian Yuri Podolyaka on Telegram. According to him UkrAF started yesterday from the red line and advanced at the farthest to the blue line and then the Russian counteroffensive retook areas up to the white line. FYI I drew the three coloured lines, for easier understanding.

According to him UkrAF still control a large part of the high ground in the north and some open terrain east of Makarivka. The area lost and later retaken by RuAF are the heights west of Storozheve, Makarivka settlement and the heights east of Urozheine and the river valley.

The equally reliable prorussian Rybar, neutral SuriyakiMaps and proukrainian DeepStateUA have three different descriptions of the situation on Makarivka. According to Rybar it's in Russian hand, according to SuriyakiMaps it's contested and according to DeepStateUA it's in Ukrainian hands, so you see it's hard say what's the truth. But since there are no corroborating information we put Makarivka as disputed.

The same applies to Novodarivka and Levadne. Most sources say that they are contested and I agree. Yesterday I said Levadne was in Russian hands again, but that seems just to have been a temporary visit by a Russian patrol, checking if the Ukrainians really were gone.

今天两军继续在三个村子附近争夺。

https://twitter.com/MikaelValterss1/status/1668578190581792768

井冈山卫士

猹爱吃瓜 发表于 2023-6-13 20:50
也就是说这三个除了马卡罗夫，其余两个村庄得失意义不大，而放大来看也是无伤大雅对吗？ ...

就算失去了马卡罗夫，也不是什么问题。因为乌军把发展突破的部队用来接近俄军阵地了。

猹爱吃瓜

井冈山卫士 发表于 2023-6-13 06:56
乌军没有选择最有利的钳形攻势，而是选择了宣传意义较大但是损失更大的正面强攻。

俄军昨天夺回了马卡罗夫 ...

也就是说这三个除了马卡罗夫，其余两个村庄得失意义不大，而放大来看也是无伤大雅对吗？

井冈山卫士

乌军没有选择最有利的钳形攻势，而是选择了宣传意义较大但是损失更大的正面强攻。

俄军昨天夺回了马卡罗夫卡，其目的并非马村本身，而在于马卡罗夫卡是一条东西向补给线的交汇点。俄军如果放弃该地，就需要后撤到4公里外的第一道防线主阵地。俄军夺回此地，就意味着乌军下次还要通过四公里的杀伤带。

这一切都发生在俄军第一道防线之外，俄军共有三道防线。

井冈山卫士

NEWS UPDATE VREMIVKA SALIENT EVENING JUNE 12
First Ukrainian gains and then some areas retaken by Russian forces. There has been hard battles all day long on the Vremivka SALIENT. First we had the usual Ukrainian night offensive and then the counteroffensive by Russian 127th Division.

During the early morning Ukrainian forces took control of Novodarivka (1) and the third settlement in the Mokri Yali River valley, Storozheve. Later on during the day the main part of the fourth valley settlement Makarivka (3), came under Ukrainian control.

At noon Russian 127th Division started a major counteroffensive. Mainly towards Makarivka, but also towards Storozheve on the left flank and north of Urozhaine on the right flank. Minor offensive operations was also made in the vicinity of Levadne (3) and Novodarivka (1). The russian counteroffensive was supported by massive artillery and air bombardments.

As a result of the Russian attack and the bombardment, Ukrainian forces retreated from (the farm) Levadne and Russian forces retook it. Ukrainian forces has avoided taking control of Novodarivka so it's again in the green (contested) zone. The Ukrainian forces has also been driven to the northern outskirts of Makarivka. Russian attacks are ongoing.

The aim of the Russian forces are not to reclaim all the lost settlements, but to retake Makarivka and the Russian defences west of Storozheve. By doing this they secure the only supplyroad to Rivnopil (4) and the northern defences (red line). If that supplyroad is cut the Russians must withdraw from that defenceline 4 km to the south to a new defenceline (white line). That wouldn't be catastrophic, but RuAF want to hold the forward defenceline (red shaded) as long as possible, to increase Ukrainian losses. To hold the northern line the western flank also must be secure. That's the reason why Russians forces spend so much energy on  Levadne and Novodarivka.

In general the entire Vremivka salient is hard to defend, since there are few supplyroads. Several of the roads are also dirtroads (yellow) and barely usable in bad weather.  The main supplyroads (purple) in the east are situated outside the defenceline in the north. Blahodatne  doesn't even have any direct contact with neighbouring settlements. Ukrainian forces don't have to take the salient. It would be enough to cut the supplyroads on the eastern and western side to force the RuAF to withdraw from the entire salient. Instead the UkrAF has spent lot of energy with frontal assaults on the northern part of the salient with heavy losses (picture 3).

RuAF wants to keep the Ukrainians away from their main defencelines as long as possible, so that most of the Ukrainian forces are spent when they reach the main defences. On picture 4 you'll see that the first Russian major defences (black dots) are more than 10 km to the south and the first (of two) main defenceline are more than 15 km to the south.

井冈山卫士

这张图更清楚一些。

井冈山卫士

大诺沃西尔卡就是主贴中提到的三个被占领村庄北部乌军的出发阵地。在下图最北边。