6月4日，俄军在南顿涅茨克方向挫败乌军大规模攻势

井冈山卫士

基辅纳粹为此次“反攻”储备的人员和装备只能在一个地区进行战术试探。也就是说，这三百辆坦克和三万条人命，就算要听个响，也只能响一次。这一次在阿尔乔莫夫斯克城下已经响完了。

国内的亲帝媒体通常会把落后两个宣传周期的垃圾信息翻倍处理，大家要注意。

井冈山卫士

远航一号 发表于 2023-6-5 04:15
他们现在手上到底还有没有规模达几百辆坦克、大约10个旅的战略预备队，都是问题 ...

在一个月前，阿尔乔莫夫斯克城下还是有的，现在估计不会再有了。

井冈山卫士

https://twitter.com/GeromanAT/status/1665429843352207362

井冈山卫士

全世界亲帝分子的精神状态

井冈山卫士

俄军在南线的工事。

比起去年秋天，今天的俄军数量更多，质量更好，火力更猛，技术更进步，工事更完备，而且处在有利于防御的地形。而乌军则全面削弱了。

井冈山卫士

https://twitter.com/MikaelValterss1/status/1665646597688946692

ANALYSIS UKRAINIAN OFFENSIVE OPERATIONS JUNE 4
June 4th UkrAF scaled up offensive operations on the Southern Front, but the losses are too high for long time success. Earlier operations were mainly reconnaissance in force with platoon and company sized combat groups. Yesterday the ukrainian forces seemed to be battalion sized combat groups. According to Russian MoD 8 UkrAF battalions was involved in offensive operations SE of Mala Tokmachka (1), at the Vremivka salient (2) and East of Vuhledar towards Velikonovoselovka (3). The fighting was intense, but on most places ukrainian forces was turned back, mainly by intense russian artillery and air attacks. On some places UkrAF succeeded in capturing a couple of hundred meters.

There are two different media stories about the fighting. The ukrainian side is very quiet about both the attacks and eventual losses on their side. Russian sources are much more liberal with information, both in text and videos. IF the russian information is correct, this explains the ukrainian silence, since the ukrainian side seldom concedes major losses on their side and tries to shift attention to other subjects.

According to the russian side, ukrainian losses amount at least 10 tanks, nearly 40 IFVs or APCs and at least 250 eliminated (KIA or very badly WIA). With this number of eliminated, the number of wounded would probably be 750-1000.

Are these numbers true, the prospects for a ukrainian counteroffensive looks very dim. This is even if we don't take into account the ongoing intense russian air and artillery offensive against UkrAF troop concentrations, ammunition and fuel depots.

With losses of over 1000 KIA and WIA  that means that a ukrainian brigade of 4000 man loose at least 25 percent of its manpower. That's on the brink of making a brigade unusable. Two days fighting with such losses would destroy a brigades battle capability. 24 days with such losses would in effect destroy the entire fist of 12 brigades UkrAF has gathered for the counteroffensive. With losses of around 12 brigades, 25 000 KIA/WIA, 250 tanks and 1000 IFVs/APCs all the strategic reserves UkrAF has built during the last 6 months would be gone. In exchange the ukrainian side could have advanced maybe 10 km on some places or more generally 2-3 km along maybe half the southern front.

Once again, IF the russian claims are true, RuAF must feel relieved and UkrAF very worried by the results of the fighting on the Southern front June 4th.

井冈山卫士

井冈山卫士 发表于 2023-6-5 23:52
https://twitter.com/MikaelValterss1/status/1665646597688946692

ANALYSIS UKRAINIAN OFFENSIVE OPERATI ...

两天的战斗已经让相当于一个旅的乌军失去的战斗力。按照这个烈度，再打一个月，单是这个方向的消耗就已经超过了乌军积攒的全部“反击”力量。

井冈山卫士

https://twitter.com/witte_sergei/status/1665739235276488706

前几天在南线的攻击有可能是试探性的，真正的“反攻”已经在昨天开始。

井冈山卫士

“大谢尔盖”推测的乌军反攻可能计划。

井冈山卫士

井冈山卫士 发表于 2023-6-6 00:04
“大谢尔盖”推测的乌军反攻可能计划。

乌格勒达方向佯攻，牵制俄军兵力。登陆并占领核电站。然后再托克马克方向发动向心突击。

这个计划不像是乌克兰人做的，倒像是出自英国殖民军事顾问的手笔。乌军主要的突进方向上全都有俄军的工事。而且，就算侵占了托克马克，乌军也不会有任何能能力进一步突进到沿海交通线。

这一切像是英军在阿拉曼战役的复盘。但是乌军即没有制空权，也没有兵力和火力优势。