美国统治集团激烈辩论乌克兰战争前景及美国对策

远航一号

https://asiatimes.com/2023/03/why-ukraine-may-embrace-chinas-peace-plan/

远航一号

A gloomy assessment of Ukraine’s prospects for victory against Russia emerged from a recent private gathering of former top US soldiers, intelligence officials and scholars with resumes reaching from the Reagan to the Trump administrations.

在近日举行的一次包括原美国高层军方、情报官员及学者的会议上，与会者认为乌克兰“胜利”的前景暗淡。与会者曾在自里根至特朗普的历届政府中任职。

远航一号

Short of trained personnel and ammunition, one speaker argued, Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky might consider a Chinese peace plan, especially after Beijing’s successful mediation of the Iran-Saudi dispute.

由于缺乏有训练的士兵和弹药，乌克兰可能会接受中国的“和平计划”

远航一号

Overwhelmingly, the sentiment of participants leaned towards escalation in the form of providing additional weapons to Ukraine. One prominent analyst proposed the formation of a “foreign legion” of fighters from other countries to supplement Ukraine’s shrinking pool of trained manpower.

但会议中压倒性的主张仍然是使战争继续升级，向乌克兰提供更多武器。其中一人主张，组织“外籍志愿兵团”来补充乌克兰人力的不足。

远航一号

The great majority of participants favored risking everything for absolute victory over Russia. None of the attendees mentioned the qualms that former president Donald Trump voiced on May 17 about the risk of nuclear escalation in Ukraine.

绝大多数参与者主张不惜一切代价争取对俄罗斯的绝对胜利，没有人提到核战争的危险

远航一号

The question of how the Russia-Ukraine war might escalate into a broader conflict received no attention. Their frustration, rather, was that Ukraine seems less likely to defeat Russia, even if the West makes the maximum effort and risks escalation.

与会者因为乌克兰无法战胜俄罗斯而感到沮丧，尽管西方已尽了最大努力。没有人注意到战争升级为更广泛冲突的危险。

远航一号

Although Washington has dismissed China’s peace plan for Ukraine, Zelensky has not. Russia would keep the Sea of Azov and most of the Donbas, a settlement that might be forced on Ukraine as it runs out of manpower and ammunition. America’s view of China is “primitive,” the expert added, and tends to underestimate Chinese sophistication.

虽然美国已经拒绝了中国的和平计划，泽连斯基尚未拒绝。按照这个计划，俄罗斯将得到亚速海和顿巴斯的大部分地区。

远航一号

A spokesman for the National Security Council dismissed the Chinese initiative, which calls for an immediate ceasefire, noting that a ceasefire would allow Russia to remain in place on territory it seized from Ukraine.

国家安全会议的一位发言人反对中国的计划

远航一号

Ukraine has sustained two-thirds as many casualties as Russia, but with a third to a quarter of Russia’s population, is far less able to sustain them, according to one expert who spent many months on the ground in Ukraine.

一名在乌克兰实地考察了几个月的“专家”说：乌克兰的伤亡总数是俄罗斯的三分之二，但人口只有俄罗斯的四分之一。乌克兰无法承受消耗。

编注：这个伤亡估计是错误的

远航一号

The entire army that NATO trained between 2014 and 2022 in preparation for a Russian attack is dead, and recruits are being thrown into battle lines with three weeks of training.

北约在2014年至2022年期间为乌克兰准备的整支军队已经被消灭了